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Market Focus: How Will Vodafone Idea’s Share Price React To Lock-in Expiry?

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Vodafone Idea

Vodafone Idea’s FPO lock-in expiry on its share price. As anchor investors’ 30-day lock-in period ends, explore expert insights, market predictions, and key factors influencing Vodafone Idea’s stock performance. Stay informed on investment opportunities and market dynamics in the telecom sector.


Vodafone Idea (Vi) will be in the spotlight on Monday, May 27, as the 30-day lock-in period for anchor investors in its ₹18,000-crore follow-on public offering (FPO) ends. This event could impact the share price of Vodafone Idea, which rose by 7.54% to ₹15.11 per share during the last trading session on Friday. Historically, the end of the lock-in period has led to selling pressure, making Monday’s trading session crucial for investors.

Vodafone Idea’s Recent Performance and Key Resistance Levels

Share Price Movement

Vodafone Idea’s share price has been consolidating around the ₹10.50–₹11.75 range recently, establishing a stable base. The stock has successfully breached the key resistance level of ₹14.05 and maintained its position above this threshold. The next resistance levels to monitor are ₹18.40 and between ₹20.00 and ₹22.00. Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President of Research at Mehta Equities, suggests that any pullback to the ₹14–₹14.50 range could be a good buying opportunity for investors.

FPO Launch and Initial Performance

Vodafone Idea’s FPO shares debuted with a 7.27% premium at ₹11.80 on the NSE and opened at ₹12 on the BSE, a 9% rise from the issue price of ₹11. Since the FPO listing, the share price has increased by over 9%. This initial success brought positive returns for investors and strengthened the company’s position to enhance operations, particularly in launching 4G services and competing with industry peers.

Anchor Investors and Their Impact

Key Anchor Investors

Vodafone Idea’s FPO raised approximately ₹5,400 crore on April 17 from both international and domestic anchor investors. Notable investors included:

  • International Investors: Australian Super, GQG Partners, Fidelity Investments, UBS Fund Management, Jupiter Fund Management.
  • Domestic Investors: SBI General Insurance, Motilal Oswal, Indian Infoline, HDFC Mutual Fund, Quant.

GQG Partners was the largest investor, contributing shares worth ₹1,345 crore, while Fidelity Investments invested around ₹772 crore.

Domestic Mutual Funds

Five domestic mutual funds received 16.20% of the shares, totaling ₹874 crore, with the Motilal Oswal Midcap Fund investing ₹500 crore.

Market Predictions and Expert Opinions

Prashanth Tapse’s Insights

Prashanth Tapse believes that despite the end of the anchor lock-in period, significant selling pressure is unlikely. He argues that the FPO funds are intended for long-term growth rather than short-term gains, supported by ongoing government backing and potential equity funding from Mr. Birla. Tapse remains optimistic about Vodafone Idea’s ability to generate healthy returns within the next year, buoyed by the overall growth potential in the telecom sector.

Mohit Gulati’s Perspective

Mohit Gulati, CIO and Managing Partner of ITI Growth Opportunities Fund, is confident in the stock’s stability due to its strong base of long-term anchor investors. He projects that Vodafone Idea could reach ₹18–₹20 in the near future, considering its solid support at ₹12. Gulati underscores the company’s revival from near-collapse and the positive outlook for tariff hikes across the industry.

Vinit Bolinjkar’s Analysis

Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities Ltd, believes that absorbing any large selling volumes from FPO subscribers would reflect positively on market sentiment towards Vodafone Idea. However, he cautions that the company faces several challenges, including a declining subscriber base, high net debt, low revenue growth, reliance on tariff hikes for ARPU growth, substantial capex requirements, and dependence on external funding.

The Road Ahead for Vodafone Idea

Key Challenges

Despite the FPO’s success, Vodafone Idea must navigate several hurdles:

  • Subscriber Base: The company’s subscriber base has decreased by 2.6 million quarter-on-quarter to 213 million.
  • Debt Levels: Vodafone Idea carries a high net debt of ₹2,074 billion.
  • Revenue and ARPU Growth: Revenue growth has been stagnant, with a 0.6% decline quarter-on-quarter. ARPU growth depends on impending tariff hikes.
  • Data Usage and Capex: Average data usage remains flat at 15.4GB per month. The company needs to invest ₹500-550 billion over the next three years to improve its infrastructure.
  • Funding Needs: Vodafone Idea is in discussions with banks for ₹250 billion in external funding.

Competitive Landscape

Vodafone Idea also faces competitive pressure from Airtel and Reliance Jio, necessitating significant network enhancements. The company is in talks with Ericsson and other vendors for 5G network equipment to stay competitive in the market.

Government Support

Mohit Gulati believes that the Indian government will ensure Vodafone Idea remains operational, highlighting the importance of having more than two telecom operators in such a large market. This governmental backing is seen as crucial for the company’s survival and future growth.



As Vodafone Idea approaches the end of its 30-day lock-in period for anchor investors, the market will closely watch its share price movement. Despite potential selling pressure, experts remain optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects, supported by a strong base of anchor investors and government backing. Investors should keep an eye on key resistance levels and any pullbacks that might present buying opportunities. The road ahead for Vodafone Idea involves navigating significant challenges, but with strategic investments and competitive improvements, the company could potentially turn its fortunes around.

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